Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 2.194608 2.950066 4.000710 5.615308 8.122618e+00 1.203058e+01 1.894147e+01
2025-04-20 1.425770 2.185964 3.446352 5.841562 1.069265e+01 2.121848e+01 5.019316e+01
2025-04-27 1.046840 1.792430 3.233621 6.579593 1.550733e+01 4.412068e+01 1.926589e+02
2025-05-04 0.803891 1.514958 3.092999 7.540234 2.347869e+01 1.066002e+02 1.362937e+03
2025-05-11 0.609208 1.239336 2.806380 8.044946 3.308537e+01 2.643299e+02 2.902397e+04
2025-05-18 0.448621 0.964124 2.358245 7.681192 4.022658e+01 5.863676e+02 1.011041e+08
2025-05-25 0.331626 0.742329 1.925874 6.945714 4.484328e+01 1.237190e+03 NaN
2025-06-01 0.271584 0.639618 1.789495 7.398314 6.494161e+01 6.233317e+03 NaN
2025-06-08 0.225105 0.554112 1.658619 7.796658 9.439488e+01 7.313499e+04 NaN
2025-06-15 0.192340 0.494490 1.584689 8.535146 1.515531e+02 2.821472e+08 NaN
2025-06-22 0.165204 0.441053 1.501951 9.184823 2.446366e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.137688 0.376144 1.330192 8.828727 3.147950e+02 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.112608 0.312787 1.137136 8.025979 3.628663e+02 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.098331 0.281353 1.075347 8.512966 6.308945e+02 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.088958 0.263758 1.071900 9.831517 1.558144e+03 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 0.081290 0.249593 1.078809 11.560789 5.145334e+03 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 0.072859 0.229437 1.037882 12.545077 1.615415e+04 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 0.063426 0.202189 0.935238 12.012230 3.041903e+04 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 0.054684 0.175270 0.818825 10.810199 3.886210e+04 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 0.049913 0.163319 0.792748 11.660853 2.537267e+05 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 0.045615 0.152015 0.763687 12.420938 5.554214e+06 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 0.042312 0.143977 0.752529 13.799585 NaN NaN NaN
2025-09-14 0.039195 0.135802 0.734946 15.034795 NaN NaN NaN